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Quicken a RMB to appreciate to be become gradually cast a consensus
From;    Author:Stand originally
Ma Jun points out at the same time, export growth of China is big the possibility of a slow down still exists. Additional, the RMB appreciates loss of the meeting in the foreign exchange reserve that 10 % mean 1.4 trillion dollar of Chinese 140 billion dollar. Integrated afore-mentioned element considerations, the RMB appreciates this year the possibility that extent achieves 10 % is not large. Exchange rate won't be one-time adjust   considerably economist Wang Qing points out Magenshidanli, undertook to RMB exchange rate once more 2008 one-time the possibility that adjusts considerably is very small. Wang Qing thinks, chinese government can insist to implement the strategy that appreciates gradually, forecast the dollar end 2008 to will be amounted to to RMB exchange rate 6.8. Specific and character, if Chinese government adopts those who resemble more than 10 % to adjust the practice with so bold extent, should appear at least the following one of two kinds of circumstances: The first, domestic CPI rises out of control, that is to say integral CPI exceeds 8 % for a long time; The 2nd, the commerce with main to China photograph is companionate, for instance the United States is mixed European Union, this kind substantially adjust can bring enough big gain, just be worth to undertake this kind is adjusted. "These two kinds of cases appear unlikelily. " in the center of   Guo Tianyong of research center director also represents industry of Bank of China of university of finance and economics before this, if the RMB appreciates considerably, can produce huge impact to exit enterprise, bring about exit product to rise in price directly, exit amount drops quickly. Below the condition that requires inadequacy inside, this brings about economy to grow occurrence coast likely, the health that affects national economy develops. A few economist offer new view again to reform of RMB exchange rate. Sun Mingchun of economist of Asia of Lei Man's brother points out recently, although the RMB appreciates quickly inevitable, but appreciate extent is not crucial, undertake to exchange rate system ability is long-term perfect and be reforminged plan. Below current condition, the pin name that uses Singapore formula is effective the optimal choice that the system of exchange rate may be reform of system of Chinese exchange rate. For instance, announce the metaphase end of exchange rate policy regularly, but the content that need not announce one basket money and weight, also need not announce effective exchange rate to appreciate extent. The market can fathom the intent of the Central Bank from the quarterly report of the Central Bank, but the bilateral exchange rate of main to dollar etc money walks along the RMB situation, not be OK from inside fathomming Central Bank intent easily of dope. Sun Mingchun thinks, if use pin name the practice of effective exchange rate, should relax to cancel a RMB completely even to be opposite above all so the daily and fluctuant extent of dollar exchange rate, so that keep RMB name the stability of effective exchange rate or appreciate moderately. This is equivalent to reducing the RMB to the position of dollar exchange rate actually be opposite with the RMB other and main money (wait like euro, yen) exchange rate is equal level.

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